Shots Saved v conceded

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🎯 Goal of This System
The aim is to generate actionable insights into goalkeeper performance and shot quality using a 3-tiered metric system:

xG – How likely a shot is to score, based on its type and context.

xGOT – Adds how well the shot was placed.

PSxG – Captures how hard and how skillfully the shot was executed.

This approach goes beyond basic stats (like saves or goals conceded) to help identify the true difficulty of each shot faced, and how well the goalkeeper responded.

⚙️ Tracked Inputs and Assigned Values
1. Type of Shot

Shot Type Value
Striker 0.7
1v1 0.9
Header 0.5
Penalty 0.85
Free Kick 0.6
2. Shot From

Location Value
In box 0.85
Left / Right 0.6
Front 0.7
3. Distance to Goal

Distance Value
≤5m 0.9
≤10m 0.7
≤25m 0.4
25m+ 0.1
4. Defensive Pressure (Updated)

Pressure Level Value
None 0.9
Light 0.6
Heavy 0.3
5. Assist Type

Type Value
Through Ball 0.8
Cross 0.7
Set Piece 0.6
One-Two Pass 0.7
Turnover 0.5
6. Shot Placement

Placement Value
TL / TR 0.95
BL / BR 0.7
ML / MR 0.6
BC / TC 0.4
MC 0.3
Off Post / Crossbar 0.9
Off Over 0.1
Off Wide 0.0
7. Goalkeeper Positioning

Quality Value
Good 0.3
Average 0.5
Poor 0.9
8. Shot Power

Power Value
Low 0.4
Medium 0.6
High 0.85
9. Shot Trajectory

Type Value
Straight 0.5
Curved 0.7
Dipping 0.8
📊 Metric Definitions & Updated Calculation Logic
🔹 Expected Goals (xG)
What it tells us:
How likely the shot is to result in a goal, based on the scenario before the ball is struck.

Formula:
xG = AVERAGE(Type of Shot, Shot From, Distance, Defensive Pressure, Assist Type)

Why it matters:
This is the baseline value for chance quality. It reflects the shot situation — e.g., a 1v1 from 15m with no defenders nearby is far more threatening than a shot under pressure from 25m.

🔸 Expected Goals on Target (xGOT)
What it tells us:
How likely a shot on target is to score, by factoring in placement and goalkeeper positioning.

Formula:
xGOT = AVERAGE(xG, Shot Placement, GK Positioning)

Why it matters:
Not all shots on target are equal. A well-placed shot into the top corner against a poorly positioned keeper is far harder to stop.

🔺 Post-Shot Expected Goals (PSxG)
What it tells us:
The overall difficulty for the keeper to stop the shot — combining shot placement, execution, and physical attributes.

Formula:
PSxG = AVERAGE(xGOT, Shot Power, Shot Trajectory)

Why it matters:
This is the final shot quality metric. It captures how fast, skillful, and deceptive the shot was. Great for assessing whether a keeper was genuinely beaten by brilliance.

❌ Off-Target Shots Handling
Shots that miss still tell a story.


Outcome Value Insight
Off Post / Crossbar 0.9 Narrowly missed; extremely dangerous.
Off Over 0.1 Wild or overly ambitious attempt.
Off Wide 0.0 Poor execution.
💡 Rebounds off post/crossbar count as One-Two assists if they lead to follow-up chances, recognizing their continued impact.

📈 Metric Ranges & Insights (Updated)

Metric Typical Range Insight
xG 0.01 – 0.5
(0.5+ = high chance) Combines factors like 1v1, no pressure, short distance — a top-quality opportunity.
xGOT 0.3 – 1.2
(1.0+ = excellent placement + poor GK) Very well-placed shot into top corner with poor GK positioning – hard to save.
PSxG 0.3 – 1.5+
(1.3+ = elite execution) Elite-level finish combining placement, power, and deceptive trajectory.
✅ Why This Matters
This 3-tier system helps distinguish:

Was it a poor goal to concede, or just an unstoppable shot?

Is a keeper facing higher-quality shots than others?

Are players consistently creating high xG chances but failing to score?

This insight supports coaching, scouting, and player development in a far deeper way than just counting goals or saves.